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3	3	== **Summary of Project** ==
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9	9	Hypotheses and models were tested across three different domains and data-sets: 1) a worldwide sample of about 100 largely nonindustrial (“traditional”) societies described by ethnographers; 2) a worldwide sample of prehistoric traditions described by archaeologists; 3) and a worldwide sample of contemporary countries with data collected through individual interviews. To compliment data on natural hazards from historical and contemporary observations, a climatologist obtained rainfall and temperature data to arrive at independent measures of environmental predictability and variability. Controlling for type of economy and political system, predictable patterns of resilient behaviors in time and space were expected in the face of unpredictable hazards—such as contingency plans, subsistence diversification, and sociocultural transformations that expand and solidify cooperation and networks. More specifically, the sociocultural transformations were theorized to include higher levels of food and labor sharing, more communal property, stronger norms and punishment (cultural "tightness"), changes in leadership strategies, and more belief that gods are involved with weather.
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11		-In our comparison of nonindustrial societies we have found that societies with more natural hazards and other resource stressors generally have: 1) more customary community food and labor sharing; 2) more subsistence diversification~-~-both relying on different types of subsistence strategies as well as using diverse types of land and water landscapes for collecting and producing food; 3) “tighter” cultures (those with stronger norms and more punishment for deviation from rules); and 4) beliefs that gods are involved with weather in some way and can help or harm food supply with weather. The sharing and subsistence diversification findings are consistent with the idea that these practices buffer risk and help ensure more stable access to food in the face of resource stress. Cultural “tightness” theory suggests that stronger adherence to rules may be especially adaptive under ecological threat because tightness may bolster cooperation and coordination. And yet, as a comparison of 32 nations suggests, moderate tightness might be more adaptive than too much tightness or too much looseness because extreme scores are associated with worse health and well-being outcomes. Comparisons of both nonindustrial societies and nations suggest that “tighter” societies may produce more authoritarianism and ethnocentrism.
	11	+In our comparison of nonindustrial societies we have found that societies with more natural hazards and other resource stressors generally have: 1) more customary community food and labor sharing; 2) more subsistence diversification~-~-both relying on different types of subsistence strategies as well as using diverse types of land and water landscapes for collecting and producing food; 3) “tighter” cultures (those with stronger norms and more punishment for deviation from rules); and 4) beliefs that gods are involved with weather in some way and can help or harm food supply with weather. The sharing and subsistence diversification findings are consistent with the idea that these practices buffer risk and help ensure more stable access to food in the face of resource stress. Cultural “tightness” theory suggests that stronger adherence to rules may be especially adaptive under ecological threat because tightness may bolster cooperation and coordination. And yet, as a comparison of 32 nations suggests, moderate tightness might be more adaptive than too much tightness or too much looseness because extreme scores are associated with worse health and well-being outcomes. Comparisons of both nonindustrial societies and nations suggest that “tighter” societies may produce more authoritarianism and ethnocentrism.
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13	13	Not all the results were consistent with our expectations. While we had expected that natural hazards would also predict more communal (rather than private property) to buffer against loss from hazards, our results only suggested a minor role for drought. The need for mobility, such as for hunting or herding large animals in making a living better predicts communal property.
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17	17	~* This 5-year project is supported by the NSF Interdisciplinary Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (IBSS) program (SMA-1416651) in a grant to the Human Relations Area Files (HRAF) at Yale University. The PI is Carol R. Ember (HRAF) and the co-PIs are: Michele J. Gelfand (University of Maryland), Benjamin Felzer (Lehigh University), Eric C. Jones (University of Texas-Houston), and Peter N. Peregrine (Lawrence University). The Senior Researchers are Teferi Abate Adem (HRAF) and Ian Skoggard (HRAF).
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19		-[[image:IBSS_ group indoor posed WP 637 (2).jpg||height="152" style="vertical-align: bottom;" width="255"]]
	18	+[[image:IBSS_ group indoor posed WP 637 (2).jpg||height="152" style="vertical-align:bottom" width="255"]]
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21		-//The research team met at the HRAF building for their launch meeting in October 2014. //
	20	+//The research team met at the HRAF building for their launch meeting in October 2014.  //
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23	23	//Shown in the first row from the left are: Peter Peregrine, Carol Ember, Eric Jones, and Ian Skoggard.//
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34	34	* [[PR-TIghtLoose-AAA2018-Slides>>attach:PR-TIghtLoose-AAA2018-Slides.pdf]] (Results presented at the American Anthropological Association meeting, November 17, 2018, San Jose)
35	35	* [[PR-TightLoose-AAA2018-SlideNotes>>attach:PR-TIghtLoose-AAA2018-SlideNotes.pdf]] (Slide notes to accompany presentation slides at the American Anthropological Association meeting, November 17, 2018, San Jose)
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45	45	* Ember, Carol R., Eric C. Jones, Ian Skoggard, and Teferi Abate Adem. 2018. Warfare, atrocities, and political participation: eastern Africa. //Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research//. [[DOI>>url:https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-05-2017-0290]]
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52	52	* Jackson, Joshua C, Marieke van Egmond, Virginia Choi, Carol R Ember, Jamin Halberstadt, Jovana Balanovic, Inger N. Basker, Klaus Boehnke, Noemi Buki, Ronald Fischer, Marta Fulop, Ashley Fulmer, Astrid C Homan, Gerben A van Kleef, Loes Kreemers, Vidar Schei, Erna Szab, Colleen Ward, and Michele Gelfand. 2019. Ecological and cultural factors underlying the global distribution of prejudice. //PloS one//. September 6. [[DOI>>url:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221953]]
53	53	* Jackson, Joshua C., Michele Gelfand, and Carol R. Ember. (2020). A Global Analysis of Cultural Tightness in Non-Industrial Societies. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. [[Click here>>url:https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1036]].
54	54	* Jiang, M. K., Felzer, B. S., & Sahagian, D. (2016). Characterizing predictability of precipitation means and extremes over the conterminous United States, 1949-2010*. //Journal of Climate, 29//(7), 2621-2633. [[click here>>url:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0560.1]]
55		-* Jiang, M. K. F., B. S.; Nielslen, U; Medlyn, B. (2017). Biome-specific climatic space defined by temperature and precipitation predictability. //Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26//(11), pp.1270-1282 .[[Click here>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12635/abstract]]\\
	54	+* Jiang, M. K. F., B. S.; Nielslen, U; Medlyn, B. (2017). Biome-specific climatic space defined by temperature and precipitation predictability. //Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26//(11), pp.1270-1282 .[[Click here>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12635/abstract]]
56	56	* Jiang, Mingkai, Benjamin S. Felzer, and Dork Sahagian. 2016b. Predictability of Precipitation Over the Conterminous U.S. Based on the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble. //Scientific Report//s 6:29962. [[DOI>>url:http://doi: 10.1038/srep29962]]
57	57	* Peregrine, P. N. (2017). Political participation and long-term resilience in pre-Columbian societies. //Disaster Prevention and Management, 26//(3), 314-329. [[click here>>url:http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/DPM-01-2017-0013]]
58	58	* Peregrine, P. N. (2018). Social resilience to climate-related disasters in ancient societies: A test of two hypotheses. //Weather, climate and society, 10//(1), 145-161. [[DOI>>url:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0052.1]]
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60	60	* Peregrine, Peter N. (2019). Reducing Post-Disaster Conflict: A Cross-Cultural Analysis Using Archaeological Data. //Environmental Hazards//, 18:2, 93-110, [[DOI>>url:http://10.1080/17477891.2018.1476317]]
61	61	* Peregrine, Peter N. (2020). Social Resilience to Climate Change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age: A Replication Study. //Weather, Climate, and Society//, //12//(3), 561-573. [[Click here>>url:https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0023.1]].
62	62	* Peregrine, Peter N. (2021). Social resilience to nuclear winter: lessons from the Late Antique Little Ice Age. Global Security: Health, Science and Policy 6 (1). [[Click here>>url:https://doi.org/10.1080/23779497.2021.1963808]]
63		-* Skoggard, Ian, Carol R. Ember, Emily Pitek, Joshua Conrad Jackson, and Christina Carolus. Resource stress predicts changes in religious belief and increases in sharing behavior. //Human Nature //17 August): [[https:~~/~~/doi.org/10.1007/s12110-020-09371-8>>url:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-020-09371-8]]
	62	+* Skoggard, Ian, Carol R. Ember, Emily Pitek, Joshua Conrad Jackson, and Christina Carolus. 2020. Resource stress predicts changes in religious belief and increases in sharing behavior. //Human Nature //17 August): [[https:~~/~~/doi.org/10.1007/s12110-020-09371-8>>url:https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-020-09371-8]]
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68	68	=== Preprints ===
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